Throughout the pandemic, policy makers and labor economists sounded the alarm over the increasing number of people fleeing Massachusetts for other states — and what their exodus could mean for the future.
Now, a new report has shed some light on who, exactly, these runaways are. And it probably does not bode well for the state’s long-term economic competitiveness.
Boston Indicators, the research arm of the Boston Foundation, published an analysis exploring trends in so-called domestic outmigration in Massachusetts, or people leaving for elsewhere in the United States. Looking at a two-year average across 2021 and 2022, the analysis found that the people moving out of Massachusetts were predominantly white, middle- and high-income earners, and college-educated.
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Particularly dire: Working-age adults are leaving in droves. On net, Massachusetts lost an average of 22,631 people ages 25 to 44 across 2021 and 2022 — the largest number of any age group and a marked increase over previous years, according to the report. For perspective, that’s about the size of the population of Winchester.
That age group “would normally start making up more of the labor market as they grow older,” said Peter Ciurczak, the author of the Boston Indicators report released this month. “But if we lose them, they’re not going to be able to.”
For a state with a rapidly aging population and a relatively low birth rate, this spells trouble, said Mark Melnik, the director of economic and public policy research at the University of Massachusetts Amherst Donahue Institute, which studies population trends.
To be sure, this problem is nothing new. “We’ve always been net losers on domestic outmigration,” Melnik said, adding that young people are a historically transient group.
And there are signs of stabilization: Though Massachusetts saw dramatic levels of net outmigration in 2021 and 2022, the state got back in the black in 2023. Massachusetts experienced a positive net migration of nearly 11,500 residents from July 1, 2022, to July 1, 2023, as international immigration numbers rebounded from pandemic-era lows.
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In fact, Massachusetts received more immigrants between 2020 and 2023 than any other state as a percentage of overall population, according to a report released Thursday by the Pioneer Institute think tank. In 2023 about 51,000 net immigrants moved to Massachusetts, compared to the approximately 39,000 net domestic residents who departed the state “for greener pastures,” Pioneer said.
Even though domestic departures are nothing new, solving them is becoming more and more urgent for the labor market, as the state’s ”silver tsunami,” looms: By 2030, about 21 percent of Massachusetts residents will be 65 or older, up from just under 14 percent in 2010, according to projections by the Donahue Institute.
“While COVID stopped the world for two years, and we kind of just froze everything, the one thing that kept happening was we kept getting older,” Melnik said.
The question then becomes: Why are so many working-age people leaving, and how do we stanch the losses?
“It’s always hard to pin any one reason down,” Ciurczak said, “but certainly, housing seems to be a big one.”
Housing costs in Massachusetts, particularly in the Boston region, are among the highest in the country. This is a top-of-mind concern for young people; a recent survey by the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce Foundation found that among 20-to-30-year-olds in Greater Boston, the cost of rent and the ability to buy a home ranked among the most important factors in determining whether to stay or go.
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And as the pandemic ushered in a work-from-anywhere world — particularly for college-educated knowledge workers — those with the means to move decided they would get more bang for their buck elsewhere.
“Or even just any bang, honestly,” Ciurczak said.
While the problems are well documented, what’s hazier are possible solutions. More housing production is a crucial piece of the puzzle, Melnik said, but Massachusetts needs an “all-in approach” to workforce development, such as targeted investments in the state’s Gateway Cities as well as groups that have lower labor force participation rates, such as people with disabilities, veterans, and people with criminal records.
“Realistically, there’s not going to be a new baby boom that’s going to solve this,” he said. “So in order to find the workers in the corners that you need to find them, it’s attraction and retention, it’s optimization of workers, and it’s creative solutions to make working easier.”
Dana Gerber can be reached at dana.gerber@globe.com. Follow her @danagerber6. Kirkland An can be reached at kirkland.an@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @kirkland_an