US-Israel threats to Iran: can mediators avert 2025 war?
Shafaq News/ Iran has long been accustomed to threats of war, both covert and open. However, recent developments suggest the current situation is the most serious in decades, with a growing likelihood of Israeli and US military strikes targeting Tehran.
Since October 7, 2023, Iran has managed to prevent regional tensions from escalating into a direct war involving its territory. Yet, concerns are mounting that this period of relative calm may soon end. Iran continues to issue explicit and implicit warnings that any military action against it will trigger a regional conflagration, with repercussions extending to Iraq, the Gulf states, and Israel itself.
Tehran possesses a vast ballistic missile arsenal capable of striking Israel and US military bases in the region. Its strategic geographical position further bolsters its deterrent posture, allowing it to threaten American assets should an attack be launched against its territory. Meanwhile, Iran continues to deepen its alliances with Russia and China, with joint naval exercises serving as a visible manifestation of these partnerships.
Despite these strengths, Iran faces significant vulnerabilities. The region is witnessing one of the most challenging periods for Tehran since the end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988, both internally and externally. Over the past 18 months, Iran has suffered major setbacks among its regional allies, weakening its influence and strategic depth.
Iran’s Regional Setbacks
In Gaza, Hamas engaged in a devastating battle with Israel, leaving the enclave in ruins and suffering the loss of senior leaders like Yahya Sinwar, Mohammad Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh. The group's military infrastructure was also severely damaged, weakening its ability to confront Israel in the near future.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah has endured significant blows, losing key figures, including its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and his successor, Hashem Safieddine. The group has also suffered substantial losses to its powerful missile arsenal, a critical component of Iran’s deterrence strategy in the region.
The most severe setback for Iran came in Syria, where President Bashar al-Assad’s regime collapsed on December 8, 2024, following a coordinated assault by Islamist factions backed by Turkiye and Qatar. The fall of Damascus severed a vital land corridor Iran had long relied on to supply its "Resistance Axis" from its territory to the Mediterranean.
In Iraq, Iran’s allied armed groups are facing mounting pressure from both the US and Israel. The Iraqi government, in response to 15 months of unrest, has adopted a policy of distancing itself from the regional conflict, making it increasingly difficult for Tehran to rely on Baghdad as a strategic depth.
Furthermore, the US administration under former President Donald Trump exacerbated Iran’s financial difficulties by freezing Iraq’s exemption to purchase Iranian gas and electricity, depriving Tehran of a crucial revenue stream.
Israeli Military Action: A Growing Possibility
Experts argue that Israel cannot effectively destroy Iran’s nuclear program without substantial US military and logistical support, as well as a clear political decision to initiate a large-scale military operation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, backed by his right-wing coalition, sees this as a pivotal moment to persuade Washington to support a joint military strike against Iran.
Israel believes conditions are ripe for such an operation, particularly with the appointment of new Chief of Staff General Eyal Zamir. Zamir has outlined seven strategic plans for a multi-front regional war, with 2025 expected to be a year of military escalation, particularly against Gaza and Iran.
Unlike previous Israeli attacks on Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981 and Syria’s al-Kibar facility in 2007, a “hit and run” strategy against Iran’s nuclear program is no longer feasible.
Iran’s nuclear facilities are extensive and heavily fortified, requiring multiple, sustained airstrikes over several days to inflict meaningful damage. Moreover, Iran’s ability to rapidly enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels—potentially producing multiple nuclear bombs within weeks—raises the stakes.
Any Israeli attack would likely provoke severe retaliation, as Tehran has the capability to strike Israeli and US assets across the region.
The risks associated with such an operation are enormous. A direct Israeli or US strike on Iran could trigger a wider regional war, involving multiple actors far beyond the immediate confrontation between Tel Aviv and Tehran.
In preparation, the US has bolstered its missile defense systems in the region, ensuring a stronger shield against possible Iranian retaliation.
Mediation Efforts
As tensions escalate, the Kremlin announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered to mediate between Iran and the United States. At the same time, former US President Donald Trump stated that he had sent a letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, expressing hope for negotiations while warning that military intervention would be catastrophic. Trump’s message focused on Iran’s missile and nuclear programs, proposing a diplomatic alternative to war.
However, Tehran swiftly denied receiving such a letter. Khamenei rejected the notion of negotiations under pressure, emphasizing that some countries seek to impose their hegemony through talks.
Iran has made it clear that any negotiations must be conducted on equal terms and with mutual respect.
Despite these mediation efforts, trust between Iran and Russia remains fragile. Many in Tehran believe Moscow sees US-Iranian rapprochement as a threat to its own interests. This skepticism is widely reflected in Iranian media and social networks, with voices openly questioning Russia’s true motives. Iran is wary of becoming a bargaining chip in Putin’s broader geopolitical strategy, especially as he navigates relations with Trump.
Nonetheless, there are indications that Iran may be open to Russian mediation. The recent resignation of Iranian Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif aligns with this possibility, as Zarif was known for his critical stance on Russia’s role, particularly regarding the nuclear issue.
Adding another layer to diplomatic maneuvers, a senior Emirati official arrived in Tehran carrying a letter from Trump to the Iranian leadership. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei confirmed the visit, stating that Anwar Gargash, diplomatic advisor to UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, would meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to deliver the message.
While Araghchi had previously acknowledged the letter’s existence, he emphasized that Iran had not yet officially received it, noting that it was being relayed through an Arab intermediary. He reiterated Tehran’s stance that any discussions on its nuclear program must be conducted on a basis of equality and mutual respect.
The Military Option Remains on the Table
Given the deep internal political divisions and economic strain in Iran, the prospects for successful negotiations remain slim. Meanwhile, the United States maintains a formidable military presence in the region, with 40,000 troops stationed across key locations, alongside an extensive arsenal of advanced weaponry and naval forces deployed in regional waters.
The political climate in Washington also favors confrontation. Many Republicans, including Senator Lindsey Graham, have expressed skepticism about the possibility of a new nuclear deal, with Graham stating that the “Nazi-like Ayatollahs want to destroy Israel.”
He has called for providing Israel with the necessary tools to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program, signaling strong congressional support for military action if diplomacy fails.
In this charged environment, Israel is poised to seize the opportunity. However, Netanyahu has opted for strategic silence, stating in the Knesset: “Some matters are better left secret and managed quietly.” His words reflect the precarious nature of the situation—one where war remains a very real possibility, even as mediators attempt to avert disaster.
