There's a Matcha Tea Shortage Brewing — Again

Everyone, it seems, is after a cup of matcha.

According to Forbes, the matcha market is expected to hit about $5 billion by 2028, equating to a 10.39% compound annual growth rate from 2023 to 2028. There's just one problem: There may not be enough of it to go around. 

In 2024, major tea manufacturers in Japan announced purchasing limits on finely ground tea powder, The Japan Times reported, adding that cafe customers also found "sold out" signs across major cities in the nation. 

Those limits made it even harder for shops in Japan and around the world to procure the powder used for matcha teas, which are harvested just once a year to begin with. According to The Japan Times, that's coupled with the fact that while consumption of matcha and green tea has declined in Japan, it has dramatically increased in the rest of the world. The report referenced data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), which indicated that Japan saw an almost three-fold increase in tea production between 2010 and 2023 to meet the demand. Now, more than half of the country's tea is exported rather than consumed domestically. 

It's a boom that went supersonic during the pandemic as people searched out health alternatives. Fumi Ueki, chief of the Leaf Brand Group, told The Japan Times,  “It seems that people drink matcha not only because it tastes good but also because they expect it to be healthy. We believe that if we can widely promote the health benefits of matcha to the rest of the world, we can expect to see even greater global demand for matcha.”

And there's one more piece of this puzzle making matcha go stratospheric: Social media. 

“The brands that have been impacted most are the ones that people overseas like, the ones that have gone viral on social media,” Megumi Kanaike, manager of the Sydney tea shop Simply Native, shared with The Guardian. According to Kanaike, matcha sales have increased an “insane” 250% in her store over the last six months alone. 

And while right now, the majority of the shortage is with these latte-grade matchas sold in cafes like this, tea ceremonialist Cara Chen told The Guardian that soon, “the upper and lower and non-organic grades may be affected too."

There is some relief in sight, as the 2025 harvest is just around the corner. However, according to the Global Japanese Tea Association, this will mean many late nights for everyone in the matcha world. "The unique and seasonal nature of matcha production makes it inherently limited," the association explained on its website. "High-quality matcha can only be made from spring tea leaves."

It emphasized that it's critical to remember that only about 6% of the tea harvested in Japan is made into matcha. "This makes it naturally scarce. To add to that, matcha must be ground into powder, and the grinding process takes time. Usually, tencha tea (the leaf material used for matcha) is ground gradually, not all at once. When demand suddenly spiked, grinding facilities could not keep up, requiring more time than the market was willing to spare." 

Due to its growing popularity, the association stated that the MAFF is encouraging "increased production of tencha and inviting tea farmers to focus more on it, rather than other types of tea." However, according to MAFF data, there simply may not be enough farmers available to grow the product at the necessary pace. The data indicated that the number of tea farmers has dwindled from 53,000 in 2000 to a mere 12,353 in 2020. 

Nevertheless, the association added that MAFF is already providing subsidies to support a shift in what those remaining farmers grow, noting that just like any trend, this one could also change with the wind, adding, "Whether the matcha craze will last remains uncertain."