‘Too much product and no market for it’

Manitoba potato quotas and manufacturing jobs are among the cuts being made in the current trade war environment.

For Manitoba’s potato industry, the losses could be in the millions of dollars. “Substantial” processor cut-backs have been announced in the past weeks, said the Seed Potato Growers Association of Manitoba.

Producers “have too much product and no market for it,” association president Russell Jonk wrote in an email.

He estimates the keystone province has 15 to 20 per cent more potato seeds than are needed for planting this year.

Manitoba exported $711 million worth of potatoes and potato products in 2023. The United States was the top export market, a provincial government sector profile reads.

Portage la Prairie is home to McCain Foods and Simplot plants. Carberry also has a McCain facility.

“Agriculture is the backbone of our (region’s) economy,” Roy Tufford, reeve of the RM of Portage la Prairie, wrote in an email. “This … reduction will have big impacts on our local economy.”

It’s unclear whether tariffs and economic uncertainty from the United States are solely to blame for reductions. One seed potato farmer the Free Press spoke to noted there’s been less demand for French fries, which could have an impact.

McCain didn’t respond to an interview request by print deadline. Farmers also sell to Lamb Weston and Cavendish Farms, said Manitoba Progressive Conservative agriculture critic Jeff Bereza (Portage la Prairie).

He’s been contacted by three different farmers in recent days about contract-related losses, the MLA said. He’s blaming levies south of the border. “(Companies) have to look at market conditions and the market conditions they’re looking at right now are tariffs.”

There is concern about wide-ranging disruption to supply chains, from seed production to crop sales, Bereza said. He accused the NDP government of not acting fast enough to find new markets.

Exporting seed isn’t an option this year, Jonk said — other North American locations have seen reductions at home, too.

“Programs like crop insurance don’t work for these types of marketing risks,” Jonk wrote. “The burden could end up being placed on individual farms.”

Farmers will soon decide how much seed to produce for 2026. The current uncertainty makes things difficult: “It seems we are not operating in a ‘business-as-usual’ environment,” Jonk said.

Seed potato farmers are currently in contract negotiations with processors. Bereza noted there’s uncertainty about the trade war’s trickle-down effect on jobs at the McCain and Simplot plants in his constituency.

Manitoba’s Keystone Potato Producers Association did not respond to interview requests by print deadline.

Keystone Agricultural Producers, a separate entity, represents nearly 5,000 farmers and is set to meet with Agriculture Minister Ron Kostyshyn on Friday. The organization has warned about the fallout of tariffs for months; early contract disruptions are concerning, but they do not come as a surprise, said general manager Colin Hornby.

“We’re going to see real impacts on the bottom line for farmers in Manitoba, especially for those dependent on the U.S. — potato, oats, canola, pork,” he said.

He’s keen to learn more about the trade war relief promised in Budget 2025 and whether producers are eligible for support yet.

Asked about how the NDP plans to support producers, Kostyshyn told question period he is working with his federal and provincial counterparts and industry representatives in a “united Canada approach.”

“Let us be frank. We have increased, in partnership with the federal government, the (AgriStability) program from 80 to 90 per cent and doubled the (AgriStability) program cap from $3 to $6 million,” the minister told the legislative assembly Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Manitoba’s manufacturing industry continues to experience layoffs, per the Canadian Manufacturing & Exporters Prairies chapter.

Winnipeg robotics company Eascan Automation Inc. has laid off one-third of its staff, or up to 23 employees.

“Every day, we have projects that were ready to move forward being put on hold by our clients,” Camila Bellon, a development manager with Eascan, wrote in an email.

The volume of business cancelled, postponed and paused accounts for roughly 30 to 40 per cent of Eascan’s annual revenue, Bellon said. Often, the company hears from its Canadian manufacturer clients they’re having trouble planning or justifying capital spending. Further, the aluminum Eascan uses is set to increase in price by 50 per cent, Bellon said.

Manufacturers need predictability, she underscored.

“Clear communication about tariff intentions, timelines and negotiations can reduce uncertainty,” Bellon said, adding wage subsidies, supports to diversify markets and shopping local would be helpful.

Tariffs and economic uncertainty have impacted manufacturers for weeks, if not months, said Terry Shaw, CME regional vice-president for the Prairies.

Some firms are eyeing Ottawa’s work-sharing program, which is used for income support during slow periods outside of an employer’s control. Shaw didn’t have numbers on how many layoffs have occurred. Those figures will appear via Statistics Canada in coming months, he noted.

While many CME members have slowed production, others are busy with orders as customers over-buy in anticipation of April 2, Shaw relayed.

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened further tariff action on April 2, including reciprocal tariffs. Currently, America has placed 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum and imports that don’t meet the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement.

The Manitoba government’s 2025 budget notes nearly half of manufacturing jobs in the province — more than 25,200 — are tariff-exposed. The sector could be hit hardest by U.S. tariffs, with a 55 per cent real GDP drop in a worst-case scenario.

Both U.S. import tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory levies have hit businesses. However, the countries’ tariffs don’t fully align, Shaw noted. For example, RVs entering America are being hit with added fees, but the same isn’t true for those coming from America, Shaw said.

Some items solely produced in the States fall under Canada’s tariff umbrella, hurting Manitoba manufacturers, Shaw added. “There are some policy gaps — some would say policy errors — that Canada is making.”

Shipments are continuing to leave Selkirk’s steel mill, Mayor Larry Johannson confirmed. Neither he nor the United Steelworkers reported layoffs at the facility; Gerdau, the Brazilian owner, didn’t respond to an interview request.

“I’m hoping that no news is good news,” Johannson said, adding seeing the semi-loads of steel makes him “feel good.”

Some 1,330 people work in Manitoba’s primary metal manufacturing sector, including 500 steel mill employees, the 2025 provincial budget outlines.

The government created a contingency budget for if tariffs proliferate and linger. It’s tabbed up to $300 million for targeted supports to tariff-hit businesses, loans for Manitoba firms and aid for farmers and producers.

Business leaders including the Manitoba Chambers of Commerce and the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce have called for more details on the supports.

gabrielle.piche@winnipegfreepress.com

maggie.macintosh@winnipegfreepress.cozzm